Saturday, November 25, 2017

November Week 4: Making Your Own Decisions

Maybe bring chess board and challenge someone to play chess, talk about how I used to play chess with my dad and brother and how much I love chess.

Chess game - in November 2016, Magnus Carlsen played Sergey Karjakin for the world championship.  They played 12 games to a tie, then they played blitz games to determine the champion.  Carlsen won two blitz games and retained the crown.  Each game lasted between 3 to 4 hours and there were no take-backs.  Once a bad move has been made, there is no going back.

Chess is a game with an almost infinite amount of variations.  There are more possible chess variations than starts in the galaxy or even atoms in the universe.  See more info at Shannon Number (10 ^ 120 possible games); and that is a low estimate.

Compared to chess, we have far fewer decisions to make in life.  But just as in chess, there is only one direction: forward.  There are no "take-backs" in life.

D&C 58:27-29
As we read a couple of weeks ago, we do not have to be told what to do all the time.  We need to be "anxiously engaged in a good cause".  If we are told what to do and how to do it, all the time, then we could be considered a slothful (lazy) servant.

What decisions do you have to make?
- Daily decisions
- Weekly decisions
- Monthly decisions
- Yearly decisions

Is it a big deal to get a daily decision wrong?  What about a yearly decision?  A life decision?

Talk about an airplane, degrees and course corrections.

Example of Jeffry Holland's story of going on a trip and coming to a fork in the road. They didn't know.  They prayed and felt they should take a right.  They went about 500 yards and found it was a dead end.  The road to the left actually was the correct road.  Later on, his son asked why they felt that the "right" road was the incorrect choice.  Sometimes we have to just make a decision … and maybe in those cases, the risk truly is low or not as high as we think.  In the Holland example, what if, instead of a 500 yard mistake, it lead them out in the middle of nowhere and they ran out of gas?

The students have a blank canvas - they can head into any direction they want now … and really they will only impact their own life.  Compared to my life (~40 years old), I can't simply go change my career or lifestyle without impacting others.

What can you do now to help you make the best decision?

1) Be informed; gather information, understand consequences, determine if that is a path you want to go down.  Prayer is a good way to gather information.

2) Determine the risk.  Sometimes if the risk is low, then not much thought is required.  But if there is a lot of risk, then a lot of prep work needs to be done.

3) Constraints and A/B testing - a variant of Good, Better, Best.  Sometimes you want the best, but other times the best is not needed.  Sometimes there are constraints on our options.  Once you've determined if you need Good, Better or Best, how do you go about finding the best?
○ Buying a car
§ Do you want the best? (if no, then no need for A/B testing)
§ If yes, then how much are you willing to spend?
§ What is your constraint?

4) Sometimes, you truly have to "walk by faith" and "see what happens" regardless the risk.  In those cases, we simply do our best.

Lastly, some food for thought: Goals vs Systems

Personal example: career path.  Picking one certain assignment vs moving in a general direction with keeping options open (CSCoE vs Manager which could lead to interface assignment)